Climate Security

For all the uncertainties generated by Donald Trump’s administration over the past six months, one thing is clear: “climate” technologies are out, and “energy” technologies are in. But while going along with this rhetorical shift may appease some, it should be recognised for what it is: a change in wording. The fundamental economic and technological forces that are pushing the world away from oil, coal, and gas and toward low-carbon, high-efficiency technologies have not abated.

- GERNOT WAGNER

Over the past two decades, climate change has been a leading item on the global agenda, driving efforts to deploy technologies that will reduce carbon dioxide emissions. Those efforts are now facing headwinds, and not just in the United States. Geopolitical developments elsewhere, like Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, have called attention to the importance of energy affordability and security over other considerations.

Policymakers in the US, Europe, and elsewhere initially responded to the war by doubling down on the shift from fossil fuels, and for good reason. Oil, coal, and gas are commodities whose prices will always be linked to geopolitical vagaries (that goes for not only global oil markets but also regional gas markets, which are increasingly linked by trade in liquefied natural gas).

As a case in point, the summer of 2022 brought massive inflation, largely driven by fossil-fuel price spikes. Europe’s gas prices peaked at ten times their long-term average, and US gas prices at around triple their long-term average. While the US Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 is widely considered a misnomer, history will judge the name kindly: The only permanent way to address such bouts with “fossilflation” is to stop using fossil fuels.