BEYOND CEASEFIRE

Not showing military strength, even if it is economically costly for us, has adverse implications for us in terms of geopolitics

- Ajit Ranade

India’s response to the Pa-halgam terrorist attack was carefully calibrated, measured, precisely targeted and intended to not escalate or spin out.

The main objective that was achieved was the establishment of a new doctrine, that terrorist attack by any Pakistan-based actors would now be treated as an act of war. This doctrine seems to have received tacit approval from the global community, since India did not receive any censure for its military strikes at multiple sites within Pakistan. What happened after the bombing of those nine sites could not have been fully anticipated. Would the military establishment in Pakistan use this excuse to touch the “hair trigger” and go nuclear? Would it resort to an irrational and disproportionate response, since its conventional counter attack did not work? And who would win the war of narratives? All of this got lost in the rapidly developing “fog of war,” although this conflict cannot really be called a full-scale war by any means.

The “fog of war” was made foggier by much of the media, especially the social media. Some media even reported preposterous developments without fact checking or verification. Social media is indeed like a tiger that policymakers and military strategists have to reluctantly ride. It is impossible to control this tiger. But the halt of hostilities, whether due to behind-the-scene third party intervention or not, is welcome. It has ended in four days and India’s objective of laying down a new doctrine has been achieved. Other collateral success has been the quality of briefings by the military spokespersons, including women. These briefings were to the point, and frank in admitting the possibility of civilian casualties. They were as transparent and open as could be in the circumstances, without letting out the extent of casualties or costs suffered, being mindful of the impact on security and morale.