Will the Indian consumer justify our sales optimism this season?

The answer for the present is a shoulder shrug at best as there is data to support the story of a revival as well as of a slump

- MADAN SABNAVIS

Come October, it is time for optimism as we enter India's festive-cum-harvest season. The former actually begins in September and lasts till December and this is the time when C spending peaks in the country, as it also coincides with a marriage season. It is not surprising that all consumer-facing companies are gearing up for big sales and the media is flooded with advertisements of products and services expected to log high offtake as part of a spending surge. But how realistic is this scenario? It has been observed that CEOs and CFOs who present corporate quarterly earnings have spoken of this year's second and third quarters being critical periods that would turn the tide, as the first quarter was quite lacklustre in terms of growth in sales. But this story has been repeated over the years; the forward guidance is always sanguine, and so much so that it has become a rolling hope that pushes optimism to the next quarter. One view is that this simply has to be done, as no CEO can say that the future does not look bright, for that will impinge on the company's share price, which has become the most critical indicator of success.

At the official level, too, there is a lot of data to indicate that things are on the right track, but this tune played out in 2022-23 as well. So, what is one to make of these gung-ho themes that play out on a regular basis?