What India's Consumption Data Tells Us About Economic Trends

Recent HCES rounds don't let us track poverty-level changes but confirm a crisis of poor earnings

- HIMANSHU

Earlier this year, the National Statistical Office (NSO) released the report for the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES) for the period August 2023 to July 2024. This is the second in the series of HCES data after the HCES 2022-23, for which a fact sheet was released just before the announcement of general elections in 2024. Its findings led to claims by the Niti Aayog that India had eliminated extreme poverty. Similar claims have been made after the release of HCES 2023-24.

The two back-to-back surveys are important data sources, with the HCES being a necessary input for India's statistical system. Two of our most important indicators of economic activity—National Accounts and price indices—are revised using the HCES. However, the NSO, which produces the HCES data, has never released estimates of poverty. That responsibility always lay with the Planning Commission (and now Niti Aayog). This body was also tasked with official releases of poverty lines to be used for estimating poverty.