Saudi Arabia is losing its grip on global oil markets

Saudi Arabia's sway over the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries long meant unquestioned dominance of the global oil market. Those days are over, at least for now.

- Summer Said, David Uberti & Benoit Faucon

The kingdom is struggling to execute its plan to keep prices elevated. Higher prices would help pay for Saudi's infrastructure-spending spree, including $1 trillion of projects designed to rapidly pivot the economy away from oil. It would also pinch drivers at the pump and contribute to risks that inflation could stage a global comeback.

But the cartel's increasingly fractious members are pushing to pump more and maximize short-term profits, in part due to the expectation of growing competition from U.S. shale drillers emboldened by former President Donald Trump's re-election.

"We have more liquid gold than any country in the world," Trump said in his victory speech on Nov. 6. "More than Saudi Arabia. We have more than Russia."

Ahead of Thursday's scheduled meeting of OPEC+, that creates a dilemma for its de facto leadership in Riyadh: continue defending the price of oil, or fight to take back market share.

It appears the Saudis aren't inclined to start another price war.

Saudi officials say the kingdom is likely to keep the spigots tight on its own production, further pushing back plans to loosen them that were already delayed twice.

"They won't be able to bring oil back online next year," said a Saudi official.

Yet another major producer, the United Arab Emirates, has been allowed to add more barrels into the market from January. And Iraq and Kazakhstan are also lobbying the cartel to bring more production of their own, which would boost supplies further and likely depress prices.

OPEC+ is comprised of the core Saudi-led cartel as well as a group of other major oil-producing allies, including Russia.

The Saudis tried to fight U.S. shale by waging a price war in 2014 and 2020 but ultimately failed to rein in mounting American production.

This time around, the kingdom's officials are wary of making a bold move before Trump signals where he would like prices to be, they said.