Regime change in Tehran could give peace a chance in West Asia

This isn't America's stated aim but a shift in power may leave a volatile part of the world better off

- NOURIEL ROUBINI

Last November, I said that Israel was likely to attack Iran's nuclear and other military facilities, even go so far as to eliminate the "regime's top military and political leaders." I also argued that "any US administration would inevitably continue to support [Israel], directly or indirectly." Regardless of divisions in Tel Aviv about the conduct of war in Gaza, the broad consensus across the Israeli political spectrum—including center-left critics of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu—was that Iran was close to developing a nuclear weapon, seen as an existential threat to Israel. Centrist leaders such as Benny Gantz and Yair Lapid criticized Netanyahu for being soft on Iran.

It was only a matter of time before Israel struck Iran, which, starting on 7 October 2023, had unleashed Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis and Shia militias in Syria and Iraq against Israel. After Tel Aviv decimated these proxies and Iran lost deterrence, Iran's only option was to gain nukes, an unacceptable outcome for Israel and the West broadly. Thus, Israel's attack against Iran. And since some of Iran's hardened nuclear facilities were robust enough to withstand Israeli weapons, it was clear that the US would intervene to destroy those units, despite the anti-interventionist sentiment of US President Donald Trump's political base. Iran counter-attacked Israel with missile barrages [and later fired at a US base in Qatar, causing no serious damage]. [Trump announced a ceasefire thereafter], but the Iranian regime is so weakened that it can barely defend itself, let alone [hurt the US].