Is Trump's agenda about US jobs or global supremacy?

The answer may determine what to expect of Trump's trade talks with others after his truce with China

- PUJA MEHRA

What does Trump want? is a question much of the world has struggled to answer for weeks since US President Donald Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on trade partners, as well as no-commercial trade geographies inhabited only by penguins and seagulls, and then put them mostly on pause. He raised tariffs on China, then raised them some more in response to Beijing's retaliation, only to pause those too. More tariff announcements were made and rescinded. We still don't have definitive insights into what 'grand strategy' is guiding Trump's chaotic tariff agenda. But clues have begun to emerge.

It's clear that the White House is using its 'Liberation Day' tariff announcements as bargaining chips to pressure large US trade partners to come to the negotiating table and accept its demands. The deal with the UK and the 90-day trade détente it reached with China provide some idea of the outcomes for which the White House is negotiating bilaterally with trade partners.

First, the US tariff on British goods has been retained at 10% in a deal with the UK, which suggests that the baseline tariff could be set at that level, up from the less than 3% rate before 2 April, 'Liberation Day'. The White House may be aiming to raise US tariff rates to levels Trump campaigned for: 10-20% for most countries and 60% for China. These rates would be much higher than the levels before 2 April and are not good news for trade and the global economy.