Incarceration Game: Americans need to wrack their minds over it

This model of how authoritarians could quell dissent has cues for Americans on defending ideals

- KAUSHIK BASU

In a 2022 paper, I introduced an allegory I called the Incarceration Game—an academic exercise that explores how authoritarian leaders consolidate power through increasingly oppressive tactics. My analysis drew inspiration from a 1948 paper on the so-called 'surprise test paradox,' which showed how rational expectations can unravel under certain conditions.

Today, US President Donald Trump, grappling with waning public support, seems determined to follow this authoritarian playbook.

The most striking example is the Trump administration's attempt to bring mortgage fraud charges against prominent critics—most notably Federal Reserve Board of Governors member Lisa Cook, Democratic US Senator Adam Schiff and New York Attorney General Letitia James.

At the center of these efforts is Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte, a major Trump donor who now oversees the American mortgage industry.

Naturally, much of the US debate has focused on whether these particular allegations have any merit. Yet, the more pressing issue is the Trump administration's apparently systematic search for incriminating evidence against its political opponents.