Why US tariffs will not take us back to the gloomy 1930s

S President Donald Trump's tariff gambit has undeniably thrown the world into turmoil. By relying on a series of bilateral tariff bargains, he has effectively sidelined the multilateral framework of the World Trade Organization (WTO).

- MANO] PANT

Technically, ‘most favoured nation’ tariffs under WTOrulesremain in place, and hisproclamations still require judicial clearance as questions linger over whether he bypassed the US Congressin taking action. Yet, if his “national security” justification fails, heis likely to fall back on another pretext, perhaps invoking Article 301 of the US Trade Act that allows retaliation against ‘unfairtrade practices’ With largely compliant legislators backing him, the likelihood of any tariff rollback appears slim,

More troubling ishisdecision to link trade deals with non-trade issues—wars, political loyaltiesand even personal considerations. Such movesare only possiblein apost-Cold War world, but they have sparked two major anxieties. The firstis that his‘on-again, off-again’ manoeuvres in West Asiaand Ukraine could ignitea wider global conflict. The second is the risk of a slide into a 1930s-style global recession.

The geopolitical dimension demands a broader discussion. Here, however, the focusison the economic question: isa tariff war inevitable and could it shrink global trade? While Trump’s unilateral political styleis deeply unsettling, evidence suggests that his trade gambitis unlikely to triggera tariff-induced global depressi