New trade order: Neutrality is unlikely to spell an advantage

Being friends with both the US and China may yield rather little

- DANIEL MOSS

Being 'not China' may have been the easy part. A big manufacturing pitch in several Asian economies was that they enjoyed cordial relations with Beijing and solid historical ties to the US. Leaders didn't mind taking some rhetorical shots at America if it was convenient for domestic politics, but showed no desire to choose between the two superpowers. This sort of opportunism will probably get harder now—and the consequences of a deeper transformation of trading arrangements could be profound.

Call it friend-shoring or China+1, this was never an exit from the Asian giant but a hedging of bets. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim's proclamation at a conference last year of his nation being "the most neutral and non-aligned location" is illustrative. Vietnam officials have also repeatedly declared their nation a trade-war victor. Behind all this credential burnishing lurked hard questions: Was America's desire to curb dependence on China-anchored supply chains fleeting or part of a lasting change?

US President Donald Trump has delivered part of the answer. Don't be too distracted by when or whether his promised tariffs on Canada and Mexico will be implemented. Trump's statements last week about his plans for the two US neighbours were seemingly contradictory.