How Europe's Military Stacks Up Against Russia Without U.S. Support

People in and around NATO wonder whether Europeans can handle more than just an exercise on their own

- Daniel Michaels

Last month, roughly 10,000 NATO troops carried out drills just miles from Ukraine's border to test a new quick-reaction force created after Russia's large-scale invasion of its neighbor. The show of military muscle was unusual for who was absent: the U.S.

Now, people in and around the North Atlantic Treaty Organization are wondering whether Europeans could handle more than just an exercise on their own. America's commitment to NATO security guarantees is suddenly in doubt, even after the U.S. reinstated military support for Ukraine this week after Kyiv accepted a cease-fire and Moscow signaled it is in no hurry to end hostilities. American diplomatic outreach to Russia and the Trump administration's frostiness toward Europe raise worries.

That is leading some to ask a once-unthinkable question: If trans-Atlantic ties deteriorate further, could Europe be forced to defend itself against Russia without U.S. support?

American military brass and officials who have served across the Atlantic say Europe would pack a strong punch in such a scenario.

Europe lacks important air-defense and intelligence capabilities, but its militaries together constitute a massive air force, giant navy, and formidable army. Those land forces, which shriveled after the Cold War, are now gradually rebuilding and adding advanced equipment.

A fight would be deadly and hugely destructive—as Russia's invasion of Ukraine has shown—and raise the risk of nuclear war. But in conventional combat, say strategists, Russia would struggle against Europe.

NATO members have said that Russia in a few years could be strong enough to launch a more traditional attack on Europe, especially if a Ukraine peace agreement allows Moscow to rebuild its armed forces.

Whether a reconstituted Russian military could take European ground is the question.