With Castro indictment, Trump bets his Venezuela playbook will work in Cuba

US is trying to press Havana into submission, but there are differences between that government and Caracas

- José De Córdoba & Santiago Pérez

The Trump administration expects major changes to the Cuban government by the end of 2026.

(AFP)

With the murder indictment of Cuban leader Raúl Castro, President Trump is applying the playbook he used to upend Venezuela’s leadership to force Havana's Communist government into submission.

Trump has pointed to Venezuela as a model for wielding power in America’s backyard after the U.S. military blasted through the defenses around its leader Nicolás Maduro and arrested him on drug-trafficking charges. Maduro’s successor, his Vice President Delcy Rodriguez, has delivered on U.S. demands, a scenario Trump has implied could be replicated in Cuba.

“The indictment and removal of Maduro sent a clear message to his socialist allies in Havana: this is our Hemisphere and those that destabilize it and threaten the United States will face consequences,” Trump said in a message released for Cuban Independence Day on Wednesday.

Trump officials have cited Maduro’s capture as a blueprint for Cuban regime change. On a visit to Havana last week, Central Intelligence Agency Director John Ratcliffe mentioned Maduro’s case as a warning that Trump's demands to open the economy and its closed political system should be taken seriously, a CIA official said.

U.S. officials have been searching for Cuban government insiders in the hope they can cut a deal to help push out the Castro-led government, The Wall Street Journal has reported. Trump administration officials have referred to the search for a "Cuban Delcy," praising the Venezuelan interim leader for her close cooperation.

“What President Trump is doing is sending a very clear message to Raúl: Look at Maduro,” said Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar, a Florida Republican. “If you do not want to wind up where he’s at, then go. It happened in Venezuela. I do believe that is going to happen in Cuba.”