Climate crisis: Innovation works, compression doesn't

After weeks of hot air, the UN’s CoP summit limped to an end in Brazil's Amazonian hub of Belém over the weekend, with a ‘deal’ that delivers nothing measurable for the climate, while wasting political capital and much effort on pledges.

- BJORN LOMBORG

The deal is being slammed by activists for failing to agree on any fossil-fuel phaseout. But this is reality asserting itself. Poor and middle-income countries, home to roughly 85% of humanity, rightly refuse to sacrifice growth and poverty reduction at the altar of Keeping the planet’s temperature rise to 1.5°C. And despite their grand promises, Western nations have a diminishing ability to affect the trajectory of global warming.

For decades now, Western governments, especially in the EU—the richest group of nations still in the Paris Agreement—have prioritized carbon emission cuts over higher economic growth, spending trillions of dollars to convince consumers to adopt electric cars and accept more expensive but less reliable wind and solar power. All these expensive efforts are barely making a dent.

The global decarbonization rate, or the annual percentage reduction in CO2 emissions per unit of global GDP, has remained roughly constant since the 1960s, with no change after the 2015 Paris Agreement. Global emissions have skyrocketed, reaching a new high in 2024. Despite this, climate campaigners are unrealistically demanding that the world quadruple its decarbonization rate.

Why are emissions still increasing when the EU and US spent more than $700 billion in 2024 on green investments like solar panels, wind turbines, batteries, hydrogen, electric cars and power grids? Because rich-world emissions matter very little for climate change in the 21st century.