Indian refiners to buy more crude from Middle East, US to replace Russian oil

Indian refiners are preparing to increase crude oil purchases from the Middle East, Latin America, and the United States to offset a likely decline in Russian supplies following fresh sanctions imposed by Washington on Moscow’s top energy producers.

- MPOST BUREAU

On October 22, the US government announced sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, prohibiting American citizens and entities from doing business with them. The sanctions also extend to non-US firms that continue to trade with the targeted companies or their subsidiaries, potentially exposing them to secondary penalties. The US Treasury Department directed that all existing transactions involving the two producers be concluded by November 21.

Russia currently accounts for about one-third of India’s crude imports, averaging around 1.7 million barrels per day (mbd) in 2025. Of this, nearly 1.2 mbd originates from Rosneft and Lukoil, with private refiners Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) and Nayara Energy being the primary buyers, alongside smaller allocations to state-owned companies.

According to Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst (Refining and Modelling) at energy analytics firm Kpler, Russian crude flows to India are expected to remain in the range of 1.6-1.8 mbd until November 21.

However, volumes from Rosneft and Lukoil are likely to fall sharply thereafter as Indian refiners move to avoid any potential sanctions-related risks.