India shifts to calibrated strategy as Russian oil flows ease & Saudi gains

During February 1-18, India’s total crude imports averaged 4.85 million barrels per day (bpd), down 8 per cent from January’s 5.25 million bpd

- OUR CORRESPONDENT

India’s crude import strategy is entering a phase of calibrated rebalancing rather than abrupt realignment, with Middle Eastern suppliers led by Saudi Arabia regaining market share even as Russian volumes remain significant but increasingly shaped by geopolitics and compliance constraints, according to shipping data and analysts.

During February 1-18, India’ total crude imports averaged 4.85 million barrels per day (bpd), down 8 per cent from January's 5.25 million bpd, as flows from Russia cooled following US sanctions on key Russian exporters and the EU’s 18th sanctions package coming into effect last month.

Ship tracking data showed Russian shipments to India declining from 1.28 million bpd in December 2025 to 1.22 million bpd in January and further to around 1.09 million bpd in early February, down about 10 per cent month-on-month.

“Russian crude imports into India are estimated at around 1.0-1.2 million bpd in February, easing toward roughly 800,000 bpd to 1 million bpd in March,’ said Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst, Refining & Modeling at real-time global commodity intelligence and analytics Kpler. Import of Russian crude, which India started to binge on once they were available at a discount post Ukraine war in 2022, are seen stabilising rather than collapsing.