Rate cuts at risk as fuel volatility resurfaces anew

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) is expected to pause its monetary easing cycle as surging global crude prices threaten to reignite domestic inflation, forcing policymakers to prioritize price stability over economic growth.

- By DERCO ROSAL

Estimates from MUFG Bank Ltd. indicated that mounting price risks stemming from escalating conflict between Israel and Iran threaten to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz.

A closure of the passage, which handles 20 percent of the world's oil supply, would significantly impact regional energy costs.

Michael Wan, a senior currency analyst at MUFG, said overall consumer price hikes could accelerate by nearly one percentage point across Asian economies, with the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, and South Korea identified as the most sensitive to oil shocks.

Crude prices approaching 2,290 pesos per barrel could push Philippine inflation toward the top end of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) target range of two percent to four percent, Wan noted.