Trump's China tariffs will hurt SA

South Africa will have to look for alternative markets for its products, including the car manufacturing, minerals and agriculture sectors

- Aarti Bhana

South Africa, like other countries around the world, was offered a reprieve on 9 April, when US President Donald Trump delayed the implementation of punitive tariffs by 90 days, but the negative effect of Washington’s escalating trade war with China will be felt on local shores.

China and the US are the biggest and second-biggest single country recipients of South African exports, respectively, so the economic toll of a trade war would be felt here.

China accounted for 9.9% of South Africa’s exports in February, followed by the US at 8.6%, Germany at 6.4%, Mozambique at 4.8% and Japan at 4.4%, according to the South African Revenue Service.

The overall slowdown in the global economy that is now a near certainty will also be felt in South Africa, putting pressure on consumers, said Maarten Ackerman, the chief economist at Citadel.

“We're taking pain from that point of view and not specifically from the tariffs that the US is imposing on South Africa,” he said. “There are definitely going to be some challenges.”

Ackerman noted that a 30% tariff on South Africa — should Trump reinstate it after 90 days — would not necessarily mean the US would stop buying South African goods, but that they would be more expensive for them, probably leading to a drop in demand.

“At the same time, it might create opportunities for us to replace that export share trading with other countries, so the direct impact on the economy and also on the job market should, and can, be weathered in terms of looking for other trading opportunities,” Ackerman added.