Congress may finally touch the third rail of American politics

Borrowing seemed like a way to avoid cuts to Medicare and Social Security. But debt won't be painless forever.

- VERONIQUE DE RUGY CONTRIBUTING WRITER

SENATE Majority Leader John Thune or his successors will face hard choices in the early 2030s.

(ANDREW HARNIK Getty Images)

YOUR representatives may finally grab the feared “third rail” of U.S. politics. When the Social Security and Medicare trust funds run out in the early 2030s, the law is clear: Benefits must be slashed.

That would mean a roughly 24% cut to Social Security checks and an 11% cut to Medicare benefits. But Congress almost certainly won't let that happen.

The easy, though irresponsible, political path may seem obvious: Change the law, keep benefits whole and pay by borrowing the money. This way legislators won't have to cast unpopular votes for spending cuts or tax hikes. This makes sense only if the consequences won't become clear until much later, after voters have forgotten all about it.

What most people are missing is that, this time, the consequences may show up quickly. Inflation may not wait for debt to pile up. It can arrive the moment Congress commits to that debt-ridden path.

Unfortunately, this part may not be so obvious to legislators looking at projections.