Not revenge or retaliation, but a paradigm shift

The Pahalgam terror attack (April 22) has put Delhi and Islamabad into a different trajectory from the past, and is one that should alert the entire strategic community.

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This was the first such incident on this scale targeting civilians since the Mumbai 2008 attacks. The barbarity in Pahalgam, segregating men from women, identifying them by religion and then executing them is aimed not just at terrorising Indians, and crushing a slowly reviving Kashmiri economy but also of instigating a communal rift in the rest of the country. Unlike the “fidayeen” attacks of the past, where terrorists were sent in as cannon fodder, to continue to kill until eliminated by security forces, this attack seemed more precise, with an exfiltration plan in place. While a deeper inquiry into the lapses that allowed the attack to take place and for the terrorists to leave unchallenged is awaited, the government has announced diplomatic measures, which include the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT). It has also given the defence forces the green light to plan a military operation. How does one craft a more long-term response, that does not just seek revenge or retaliation, but works as a deterrent in the short term and seeks to change patterns of cross-border behaviour in the long term?To begin with, it is necessary to analyse India’s varied responses to attacks of a similar magnitude over the past few years for what was, relatively speaking, more effective in securing India’s security interests. While most analyses look at the responses to the Uri (2016) and Pulwama (2019) attacks, at least five different responses should be studied: this includes 2001, after the Parliament attack, when the Indian Army was mob