With Trump, ifs back to the future forthe US

America's presidential elections are over, but the existential challenges for its democracy and governance have just begun

- Milan Vaishnav

In what was billed as a statistical dead heat, Republican nominee Donald Trump once again repudiated the experts and struck a decisive blow in the 2024 United States (US) presidential election, catapulting himself to a second, nonconsecutive term in the White House.

Trump, no stranger to shredding the political rulebook, led a sweep of the seven critical "swing states", eliminating any plausible path to victory for Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris. Harris's best route to the White House always lay through the "Blue Wall" states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Trump not only smashed this bulwark, but he also ran the tables in the "Sun Belt" states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina.

In the current era of US domestic politics, '°big" victories are often measured in the hundreds of thousands of votes. In this light, Trump's 2024 triumph qualifies as sweeping. Although ballots are still being counted, Trump is on track to clinch both the popular vote, and a decisive electoral college majority.

The recriminations within the Democratic Party have already begun. Should an ageing, unpopular Joe Biden have withdrawn earlier? Did Harris err in choosing Minnesota governor Tim Walz over Josh Shapiro, the popular governor of electorally critical Pennsylvania? Could Harris have distanced herself from the Biden administration's handling of the Gaza crisis? Did the Democrats focus excessively on the threat Trump poses to liberal democracy?