A CASE OF U.S. AND THEM

Amid ongoing wars, the world's most important conflict is set to unfold in the US, between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Meanwhile, China is retooling its model. Smaller countries are throwing up surprises in peace and war. India sits comfortably, awaiting results of its own

- Pramit Pal Chaudhuri

The world will press pause in 2024. Everyone from policymakers to homemakers will prefer to be cautious. There will be less money to throw around, a need to T replenish weapons stockpiles, fears of domestic unrest as debts pile up, and generally less leeway for the daring and innovative. Lessons will be drawn by tinpot types from the misadventures of swashbucklers such as Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu and Russia's Vladimir Putin.

Yes, there will be wars. The ones that have been most in the spotlight - Israel's bombing of Gaza and Russia's offensive in Ukraine - are already entering their twilight. Casualties are still rising, but military gains are diminishing. Israel and Ukraine both know that the US presidential campaign will be the single largest constraint on their war efforts.

That unofficially begins in February, featuring octogenarian Joe Biden and septuagenarian Donald Trump. It will run all the way to November. India's is one of the few governments that can afford to be sanguine. Prime Minister Narendra Modi seems to get along with both men. Everyone else's view is reflected in Biden's recent comment: "Every head of State I've come in contact with has said 'You've got to win, you've got to win."

The US election will be a major test of whether the Washington establishment has restored its credibility with the working class. Washington has done all it can. It has printed money, subsidised industry, spent on infrastructure, deep-sixed free trade dogma.