6.3-6.8% growth forecast as eco survey flags global stress

India's GDP growth is projected to range between 6.3% and 6.8% in 2025-26, according to the Economic Survey tabled by Union finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman in Parliament on Friday, that pushed for more reforms, especially by states, to take growth to a higher trajectory.

- Rajeev Jayaswal

The GDP growth range provided in the survey is not very different from the 6.4% at which the economy is projected to grow this year (2024-25), which itself is not too far away from the 6.5-7% estimated in last year's Economic Survey.

Chief economic adviser V Anantha Nageswaran, speaking later at a press conference, characterised the projection as a baseline estimate that could be exceeded. "Whenever opportunistically we can generate higher export growth, as we were able to do so in 2021-22, we should be able to capitalise on that," he said, noting that export diversification and expansion into new geographies could add 0.5-1 percentage point to growth rates.

"Agriculture sector itself can add 0.5- 1% of additional GDP growth," Nageswaran said, outlining how these improvements could push overall growth towards 7.5% or 8%.

But he added that the global economic context isn't particularly conducive to growth.

The Economic Survey points to challenging global conditions affecting the baseline projection.

The Index of Global Real Economic Activity (IGREA) has remained in negative territory since October 2024 (-3.37), declining to -11.44 in November and -45.40 in December 2024, according to Dallas Fed data, it stated.