The butterfly effect in global climate finance

Why Asia needs its own regional climate alliance as the US retreats

- Roxy Mathew Koll

Global warming does not pause for politics. Heatwaves across India, cyclones on both coasts, and monsoon floods and droughts do not wait for election cycles or budget seasons. They also do not respect borders. The impacts travel across oceans and supply chains, and they show up as food prices, health emergencies, and fragile infrastructure. Every kilometre of coastline and every farming district depends on timely, credible forecasts.

On January 7, 2026, the White House issued a memorandum directing US agencies to withdraw from 66 international organisations and agreements, including the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). On January 8, the US Treasury notified that it was withdrawing from the Green Climate Fund, a fund for climate finance established under the UNFCCC. The legal mechanics will play out over time, but the signal is clear. Climate cooperation is being treated as optional, even when the climate threat is not.

Climate institutions sit on top of the global climate services chain. Observations from satellites, ships, buoys, and weather stations feed into global forecast systems. Supercomputers assimilate the data and run models. National agencies convert these into warnings and planning. Break any link in that chain and the cost shows up later as wider uncertainty and slower action.

Nobody notices the missing bolt until the bridge starts to shake.