India acting with panache, valour in shaping the new global order

The world has become more disorderly than imagined. Francis Fukuyama in 1989 wrote the book End of History in the belief that the world was a settled one.

- NK Singh

It was the post-Cold War era, when liberal democracy and market capitalism were broadly accepted in what he described as the free world. Three decades later, this scripthas been torn up. The new era is turbulent. Geopolitics is back in the driver's seat. Climate risk now shapes macroeconomic outcomes. Technology is redrawing power itself. The global order is shifting from universal rules to smaller strategic clubs, Multilateral pluralism isin the past tense. Ten trends define this new world: five describe the shifting global context and five chart out India’s trajectory.

First, global growth is stuck near 3%. Advanced economies will grow at L4 to1.6% and emerging markets near 4.2%. India remains the clear outlier. Real GDP rose 8.2% in Q2 FY26, keeping even the most cautious full-year estimates above 7%. Viksit Bharat by 2047 requires about 7.9% real GDP growth. India has previously expanded at 10.1% in nominal dollar terms.

Second, recent performances and events strongly suggest that Viksit Bharat 2047 is within reach. The government recently implemented new labour codes. This reform priority strengthens productivity and growth. Taken together, and given the power of compounding, India’s pathway to Viksit Bharat by 2047 becomes entirely achievable.

Third, deeper fault lines have reopened sovereign balance sheets. Public debt in advanced economies has crossed 110% of GDP. The United States stands at about 107%. It spends over 3.2% of GDP on interest, which is more than what it spends on defence. Systemic risk have shifted from stock markets to bond markets. Nations must pay for ageing, defence and climate adaptation. Fiscal space is shrinking. Central banks have limited manoeuvrability.

Fourth, trade, the engine of globalisation, has lost steam. Merchandise trade growth is set to fall from 2.4% in 2025 to below 1% in 2026. The WTO's dispute system is frozen.