Saving climate action in the age of global fragmentation

With multilateral forums gridlocked, bilateral deals on climate action must move beyond donor-recipient dynamics to that of mutual gains

- Arunabha Ghosh

The world is navigating turbulent times. Conflict continues in West Asia and Ukraine. US trade tariffs loom large over India and global commerce, and China's restriction on rare earth exports disrupts supply chains. Energy security is back on top of national agendas, with several major powers retreating from their climate commitments. In this fragmented world, the multilateral climate regime faces its greatest test yet. At the same time, the climate crisis itself cannot be ignored. News of extreme heat waves and flash floods inundating cities are commonplace across nations.

We are no longer in the world that signed the Paris Agreement in 2015: Not meteorologically, not politically, not economically, or socially. Today, the international climate architecture is under threat— not only in its letter but, more worryingly, in its spirit.

The letter — national targets, finance flows, technology cooperation — is faltering. At the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW), we estimate that only two developed countries — Belarus and Norway —are on track to meet their 2030 climate targets. Many others are backsliding. But more troubling is the erosion of the Paris spirit — the understanding that climate action isa collective geopolitical and macroeconomic imperative. That shared, cooperative method is now at risk of being downgraded, sidelined, or eclipsed by more immediate crises.

We are in a world of polycrises: Economic stagnation, growing debt burdens, rising disasters, and the ongoing challenge of decarbonisation. Nearly 60 countries are now spending more on debt servicing than on education or health — forget climate action. Vulnerable countries face repeated shocks that aren't even being counted, let alone compensated.