MAGA fault lines and implications for India

The momentous changes within the US will continue to strain India's strategic calculus even after a trade deal is signed

- Avinash Paliwal

On January 6, 2021, when a large mob of Trump-supporters violently stormed the US Capitol to disrupt the Congressional certification of the 2020 presidential election, the world had a glimpse of how polarised the US is. Things have become worse.

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"If we lose the midterms, if we lose 2028, some in this room are going to prison — myself included," warned Steve Bannon to a roomful of Republicans. This statement by an influential hardliner in the Make America Great Again (MAGA) camp and a former Donald J Trump loyalist should offer us pause. When the institutional guardrails of a superpower are visibly eroding, when political violence is increasingly normalised, when immigration officers are attacking Americans with impunity, when tariffs hurt local farmers and foreign partners, when the person occupying the highest office in the land prioritises personal loyalty over the Constitution, when allies fear territorial annexation, and adversaries experience an extrajudicial effort to seize a sitting head of State, it is time to take an earnest measure of where India's most important strategic partner is headed.

Bannon is right. Trump's America is increasingly testing the legal and moral limits of power at home and abroad. It has opened many fronts at once. Something must give. When that happens, hubris is likely to pave way for fear in team Trump. That's when the US will face its most dangerous moment. Trump is undoing the long-term American social contract, while maintaining short-term popularity and a devoted personality cult. This is true in all spheres — economics, politics, military, and society. Trump tariffs are protecting some industries but spiking consumer prices and threatening inflation. Still, the Democrats are failing to outmanoeuvre Trump on policy and popularity nationally, notwithstanding Zohran Mamdani's historic mayoral victory in New York City.