Senate Democrats still have difficult path to majority

With former Rep. Mary Peltola’s candidacy in Alaska, Senate Democrats still have a difficult path to the majority in November.

- Nathan L. Gonzales, Tribune News Service

Mary Peltola

The fact that Democrats may need to rely on Alaska — a state where Republicans have a 9.4-point Inside Elections Baseline advantage, where Donald Trump finished ahead of Kamala Harris by 3 points in 2024, and where Democrats have won just one Senate election in 50 years — to flip the chamber is evidence that it will be tough for the caucus to get to 5! seats this year.

Senate Republicans currently hold 53 seats, meaning Democrats would need a net gain of four seats to win control and bypass Vice President JD Vance's tie-breaking vote. And other races could pose more challenging for Democrats than Alaska. North Carolina appears to be the easiest takeover opportunity for them, given the current political climate and the fact that it's an open seat with Republican Thom Tilis retiring. But a flip is not guaranteed. Trump won the Tar Heel State in all three of his presidential bids, including a 3-point win in 2024. And Democrats have won only one Senate race in North Carolina in the past 25 years (Kay Hagan in 2008). The last Democrat to win before her was John Edwards in 1998.