EBRD lifts growth forecast for the first time in a year

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) lifted its 2025 growth forecast for the first time in more than a year but warned that the effects of tariffs and war will weigh on growth in 2026. The report, which covers economies in emerging Europe, Central Asia, the Middle East and Africa, raised the 2025 growth outlook slightly to 3.1 per cent, but noted a growing divergence as emerging European countries' growth lagged expansion elsewhere.

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The 2025 estimate excludes the development bank's newest membersIraq and six Sub-Saharan African countries, including Nigeria, Kenya and Ghana - but they are included elsewhere in the report for the first time.

The latest report, EBRD chief economist Beata Javorcik told Reuters, showed "a story of multiple pressure points, and a story of divergence in performance between emerging Europe and our other regions of operations."