ASIA’S POWER MAP SHIFTS BEYOND US-CHINA RIVALRY

Lowy’s 2025 Index shows a region where middle powers, not superpowers, are driving next phase of strategic change

- BY SAJJAD ASHRAF | Special to Gulf News

The Lowy Institute’s 2025 Asia Power Index, released on November 26, 2025, offers one of the most comprehensive assessments of how influence is distributed in the world’s most strategically dynamic region.

The Index — which evaluates 27 countries across eight power indicators — underscores a critical reality: Asia’s transformation is not defined by a simple narrative of American decline or Chinese ascent. Instead, it depicts a more intricate mosaic in which middle powers are consolidating their weight, regional institutions are deepening, and the China—US rivalry serves as an important, but not exclusive, driver of regional change.

The 2025 Index highlights four major continental shifts. First, the United States remains Asia’s most powerful actor, though its overall score has plateaued for the third consecutive cycle. Second, China retains its position as the region’s second-most influential state, yet the pace of its rise has slowed. Third, India, Japan, and Indonesia continue to carve out distinct roles as consequential actors. Finally, Southeast Asian middle powers — particularly Vietnam, Malaysia, and the Philippines — show measurable improvements in military capability and diplomatic activity, affirming the subregion’s long-term strategic importance.