Musk is wrong about AI and retirement

PUT ME DOWN as an Al optimist.

- ALLISON SCHRAGER

Artificial intelligence has the potential to transform the economy and make Americans richer, healthier, and more productive. I’d bet money on it—in fact I have, through the shares I own in an index fund, which means I am long the US economy.That said, there are certain things not even Al can do, and one of them is suspending the basic laws of economics. Elon Musk recently predicted that AI will create such abundance that in a decade or two, people won’t need to bother saving for retirement. Feel free to check my answer with your favourite AI, but: Don’t count on it.

There are two optimistic and probable scenarios for the future of the Al-powered economy. One is that Al behaves like other innovations—that it, makes people more productive in the same way as other major innovations of the past, such as railroads, the telegraph, or electricity. These innovations powered the economy and transformed work and life, yet they did not result in an abrupt increase in growth, which averaged just under 2% between 1850 and 1929. The effects of these innovations were diffuse, and as they spread through the economy, they made other innovations possible.