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Reform and Plaid are neck-and-neck in Senedd poll

March 07, 2026

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Daily Post

REFORM UK and Plaid Cymru are projected to be tied on 28 seats each in May's Senedd election with Labour just behind on 26, latest polling shows.

The gap between Reform, which launched its manifesto for Wales in Newport on Thursday, and main contender Plaid Cymru has disappeared with the two parties dead level.

Plaid's support has risen slightly while Reform's has dropped by 5%, according to the data from More in Common.

Labour, at 20%, remain unchanged but the Greens have seen their support double - putting them dead level with the Welsh Conservatives.

If that were to be replicated at the ballot box, the Greens would win five seats and be represented in the Welsh Parliament for the first time.

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