Jonathon Hill speaks to an expert who thinks many could use 2026 Senedd election as a protest vote over discontent with Westminster

AN EXPERT in political psychology has predicted many in Wales could use the Senedd election in 2026 to cast "protest votes"

- 

Dr Joseph Phillips, politics lecturer at Cardiff University, said it is not unusual for people to treat Senedd elections differently to general elections.

“There are some that will treat them as elections to government in their own right and that percentage is substantial now - certainly more substantial than it was,” he explained.

“But there remains a significant percentage who will treat Senedd elections as opportunities for protest votes and opportunities to voice discontent with Westminster.”

It comes after the Western Mail visited one of Wales’ most deprived estates to ask people who they were likely to vote for next May - 80% told us they would be voting for Reform UK.

There has understandably been a clear effort by Welsh Labour members in the Senedd - including First Minister Eluned Morgan and health secretary Jeremy Miles - to distance themselves from the UK Labour Government off the back of the cuts announced last month.

Some said nothing could happen between now and next May which would change their minds, while the majority of people we spoke to raised immigration and welfare cuts as main concerns, two issues which are not the responsibility of the Welsh Government.

On some voters not caring about the nuances of devolution, Dr Phillips said it isn’t unusual to see voters' opinions focus less on the issues which its devolved nations can solve.

He said: “[Some voters] might recognise that some of the issues, for example around immigration, are not in the Senedd's control, but still wish to register their vote according to those issues.