US tariffs to slow both global economic and insurance premium growth

Swiss Re Institute says US tariffs affect global economic growth, which is forecast to slow to 2.3% in 2025, down from 2.8% in 2024

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Global growth is decelerating as US tariff policy reduces trade and heightens uncertainty. Consumers and firms have likely already begun cutting spending and investments in response to the uncertainty, which may not be fully visible in the economic data yet.

According to Swiss Re Institute’s World Insurance sigma, global GDP growth (inflation adjusted) is expected to slow to 2.3% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026 from 2.8% in 2024. The global insurance industry is expected to follow the trend with total premiums expected to slow to 2% this year from 5.2% in 2024, picking up marginally to 2.3% in 2026.

Swiss Re’s Group Chief Economist Jérôme Haegeli said: “While insurers' profitability outlook is still benefiting from rising investment income, we expect tariffs to slow global GDP growth, and consequently weigh on insurance demand. In the long term, US tariff policy is another move towards more market fragmentation, which would reduce the affordability and availability of insurance, and so diminish global risk resilience.”

The volatile nature of US policy changes under the current administration has ushered in a paradigm shift of diminished confidence in the US government, eroding its status as a “safe haven” for global capital. Consequently, Swiss Re Institute has lowered growth expectations for most major economies in 2025.