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Fitch says US tariffs reach levels transforming global economic outlook, raising recession risks
April 05, 2025
|Daily FT
FITCH Ratings yesterday said US tariffs have reached levels that are transforming the global economic outlook, significantly raising US recession risks and constraining the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates further.
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The 'Liberation Day' tariff increase earlier by the US Government on 2 April sharply exceeded the already steep rises assumed in its March 2023 Global Economic Outlook (GEO). These increases impose a minimum tariff rate of 16% for US trade partners and sizeable additional increases on a subset of 57 trade partners. The adjust-ments make US effective tariff rates (ETR) to about 25%, which would be 64% for China, above its March assumed levels of 15% and 35%, respectively.
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