"China shock" or "China opportunity"?

DATA recently released by the General Administration of Customs of China showed that the country’s trade surplus reached US$ 1.08 trillion in the first 11 months of 2025, surpassing the US$ 1 trillion mark for the first time.

- By GONG RONG

This is a strong testament to the robust resilience of China’s foreign trade.Yet some have seized the opportunity to hype up the so-called “second wave of China shock” and falsely accuse China of pursuing a “neighbourhood impoverishment strategy”. A close look reveals that various versions of the “China shock theory” resurface from time to time with new rhetoric emerging one after another, all following the old trope of the “China threat theory”.

From an economic perspective, the so-called “excess capacity” is a false proposition. In today’s era of economic globalisation, countries participate in international trade based on their comparative advantages to realize the optimal allocation of global resources — which is a major advancement in humanity’s economic cooperation. A country’s production takes into account both domestic and international market demands, and China’s exports are normal trade under the principle of comparative advantage.

The international criteria for determining dumping are that a product is exported at a price lower than its normal value, causing material injury or threat to the relevant industries of the importing country, and there is a causal relationship between the two. China boasts the world’s most complete industrial system, an efficient logistics system, a large pool of high-calibre talents and sustained R&D investment. The competitiveness of Chinese goods stems from economies of scale, a complete industrial chain and technological progress. With market demand and cost-effective products, all parties will naturally benefit.