Kemi won't so much be battling Starmer for seats as Farage...and the ghost of Boris

SIR Keir Starmer's first few months in Number 10 haven't gone well.

- JONATHAN WALKER

Tax rises and Treasury warnings about a "black hole" in the public finances swiftly shattered business confidence.

Changes to winter fuel payments and disability benefits are plunging tens of thousands of people into poverty, according to the Government's own figures.

And Sir Keir's chief of staff, Sue Gray, was forced to resign following a vicious civil war inside Number 10, while four Government ministers have also quit.

So who's likely to be the big loser when local elections take place on May 1? It seems very unfair but the person who could feel the heat once the votes are counted is actually Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch. She suffers from the curse of high expectations.

Traditionally, the party in power at Westminster does badly in "midterm" elections, SO you might expect Labour to lose seats.

At the same time, both friends and foes of the Tory leader will be examining the election results for clues as to whether Mrs Badenoch is impressing voters and could one day replace Sir Keir as Prime Minister.

But a combination of factors means the Conservatives will struggle to make a breakthrough.

Around 1,600 council seats are up for re-election but many of these are in county councils, where Tories traditionally do well. Most big city.

Labour strongholds aren't holding a vote this year.

It means Labour is only defending around 300 seats, while the Conservatives are defending around 900. In other words, Labour doesn't actually have many seats to lose.

And the last time most of these seats were contested, in 2021 when Boris Johnson was Prime Minister, the Tory share of the vote went up.

Mrs Badenoch isn't so much competing against Sir Keir as against the ghost of Boris.