Stuck in a dynastic imbroglio

Since the dust has settled after the 2025 midterm elections, Philippine politics appears stuck in an eerie stasis.

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With the surprise rally of “senatoriables” from the DuterTen slate, which tied with the candidates of the incumbent-backed Alyansa (not to mention the dark horse victory of oppositionists Bam Aquino and Kiko Pangilinan), President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr. appears to be on the back-foot. The indecisive standoff between the Senate and the House of Representatives regarding Vice-President Sara Duterte-Carpio’s impeachment, despite the emergence of a consensus regarding its necessity, does not paint the picture of decisive leadership across branches. We can expect this to drag on until (if not beyond) Marcos Jr.’s fourth State of the Nation Address.

Marcos Jr. and Duterte-Carpio’s persistently dominating the headlines can be demoralizing and demobilizing — especially for Filipino voters and stakeholders not enjoying this dynastic “sabong” (cockfight). Not helping is the fact that international coverage and even mainstream political analysis continue to cast this feud in “proxy war” terms. Either we read the results of the 2025 midterms as a way of figuring the odds of VP Duterte-Carpio’s political survival, or as a way to determine whether the Philippines swings back to being a spear-carrier for competing superpowers — be it an increasingly pariah United States under Donald Trump, or a persistently hegemonic bullying China.