Inflation likely quickened to 1.9%

HEADLINE INFLATION likely quickened to a six-month high in September, but still below the 2-4% target, due to a rise in food and fuel costs, analysts said.

- By Katherine K. Chan

A Business World poll of 12 analysts yielded a median estimate of 1.9% for September inflation, within the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 1.5-2.3% forecast for the month.

If realized, inflation would have accelerated from 1.5% in August but steadied from the 1.9% clip in September 2024.

This would also be the fastest print in six months or since the 2.1% in February.

September may also be the seventh month in a row that the consumer price index fell below the central bank’s 2-4% target range.

The Philippine Statistics Authority is scheduled to release the September inflation data on Tuesday, Oct. 7.

“Inflation in the Philippines likely quickened to 1.9% (year on year) in September from 1.5% in August, after a series of tropical storms damaged crops and pushed up food prices,” Moody’s Analytics economist Sarah Tan said in an email.

Last month, typhoons Mirasol, Ragasa (locally known as Nando) and Bualoi (pong), coupled with the southwest monsoon, brought heavy rains and flooding in parts of the country.

“Food prices in September surged, mainly because of the strong storms that hit the country. Prices for vegetables and fish shot up significantly, with vegetable prices seeing a particularly dramatic rise compared to last year’s weaker price base,” Metropolitan Bank Trust & Co. (Metrobank) said ina note.

Emilio S. Neri, Jr., lead economist at the Bank of the Philippine Islands, said inflation may have quickened to 1.9% in September, “lifted by higher fish prices amid rains and rising rice costs following the government's rice import suspension order.”

The 60-day suspension on imports of regular milled and wellmilled rice took effect on Sept. 1.