Survey gives clear direction towards Viksit Bharat

The Economic Survey 2025-26 presents a number of interesting aspects of the Indian economy both for medium and long term.

- N R BHANUMURTHY

But what is more interesting is that it ensures continuity from the previous Surveys and this particular Survey makes some technically sound conclusions. The Survey highlights how India has pushed the growth frontier in a troubled global economy context.

While the Survey has become lengthy, based on first two chapters it is clear that this Survey presents some crucial estimates based on robust econometric methods. Also glad to know that the Ministry has an in-house nowcasting model to predict quarterly GDP growth.

Based on various indicators and other policy interventions, the Survey predicts a GDP growth between 6.8 to 7 per cent for FY27. This is 0.5 per cent higher than what was predicted in the last Survey for FY26 and is closer to the potential GDP growth that this Survey estimates, which is at 7 per cent. This upward revision in GDP forecasts clearly indicate what Chief Economic Advisor said in the presentation, that India is an oasis of macro stability in a turbulent world.

As Survey argues, this upward revision is largely due to domestic factors and due to a number of reforms that are initiated since April 2025 while assuming the support from external sector at 2025 level. In our view, as in the past, the Survey is a tad conservative with respect to growth projection. It could have some implications on the nominal GDP growth forecast for FY27, which is going to be crucial for the Budget calculations. With new base year numbers going to be released, it will be interesting to see how macro-fiscal numbers are going to be affected going forward.