Steel prices rise but looming trade war sparks concerns

Domestic steel prices have seen an increase over the past couple of months in anticipation of a safeguard duty, but a looming global trade war is likely to weigh as a threat of import rises and prospect of export flounders.

- ISHITA AYAN DUTT

Data from BigMint showed that in March 2025, hot rolled coil (HRC) prices ex-Mumbai increased by ₹600 per tonne month-on-month (M-o-M), rising from ₹48,400 per tonne in February to ₹49,000 per tonne. The monthly average for January was ₹47,000 per tonne.

However, on a year-on-year (Y-o-Y) basis, prices of HRC, a benchmark for flat steel, have consistently remained lower compared to financial year 2024 (FY24).

In long steel, rebar prices showed variability, with FY25 prices being higher in some months and lower in others compared to FY24.

According to BigMint, March 2025 saw a price increase of ₹1,600 per tonne M-o-M, bringing the price to ₹54,400 per tonne from ₹52,800 per tonne in February.

Bulk of the steel imports into India is in the flat steel segment. And it is widely anticipated that the 25 per cent tariff by the US from March 12, 2025 will lead to trade diversion and increase imports into India, keeping prices under pressure.

According to Sehul Bhatt, Director-Research, Crisil Intelligence, the move will lower the exports of its trade partners as local production rises, but India is unlikely to be impacted materially because only 2 per cent of its total finished steel exports in the first nine months of this fiscal were to the US.