Signs of domestic tremors

The 4th plenum of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee has clues to the country’s present and future

- SHYAM SARAN

The 4th plenum of the 20th Central Committee (CC) of the Communist Party of China (CPC) was held in Beijing from October 23 to 25. This plenum was important because it adopted the “Recommendations for Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP) for Economic and Social Development 2026-2030”.

The final plan document with details will emerge next year. The plenum communique contains the recommendations in summary. More importantly, it includes an oblique commentary on domestic politics, a report on recent high-level personnel changes, significantly in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and the leadership's assessment of the current geopolitical environment, both its inherent risks and opportunities.

The communique declares that the 14th FYP targets had been successfully achieved and had laid the basis for a more ambitious 15th FYP, which will serve as a “key link between the past and the future”. The future landmark is the achievement of “socialist modernisation” by 2035. By this year per capita incomes should reach “the level of moderately advanced countries”.

China, it is said, is likely to face “high winds, choppy waters and even dangerous storms” but it remains “in a phase of development where strategic opportunities exist alongside risks and challenges, while uncertainties and unforeseen factors are rising”.