Reliance Retail and Jio may trigger Ebitda turnaround for RIL

Reliance Industries Limited (RIL), the conglomerate led by billionaire Mukesh Ambani, is poised for a strong rebound in earnings, with Ebitda (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation) projected to climb 16 per cent in FY26, up from a modest 2 per cent rise in FY25, according to analysts at global brokerages Goldman Sachs and Bernstein.

- DEV CHATTERJEE

Goldman expects Reliance's CROCI (cash return on capital invested) to widen by 140 basis points to 11 per cent by FY27, citing minimal downside risks to consensus earnings forecasts. Supporting the outlook are steady refining margins, a revitalised retail segment with 15 per cent revenue growth as store and B2C restructuring wrap up, and a potential telecom tariff hike in the latter half of FY26. Reliance holds a 66.5 per cent stake in Reliance Jio and an 83 per cent stake in Reliance Retail, with the balance held by global private equity firms, sovereign funds, and technology companies.

Shares of Reliance ended flat on Tuesday at 1,406 apiece on the BSE.