Margin risk for CGD players on higher LNG prices

Gas demand has soared, hitting high levels of an average 198 million metric standard cubic metres per day (mmscmd) in October 2023, after averaging between 193 and 198 mmscmd during August-September.

- DEVANGSHU DATTA

The consumption was split among fertiliser (61.1 mmscmd in October 2023, vs. 57-59 mmscmd in August-September 2023); power (28.3 mmscmd in October, down slightly compared to August-September; city gas distribution or CGD (38 mmmcd in October, vs. 36.3 mmscmd in September) and other industrials (70.7 mmscmd in October vs. 70 mmscmd in September).

Till date, gas consumption in FY24 is up 15 per cent year-on-year (Yo-Y) after three years of decline. About 103 mmscmd is supplied by domestic production, up from 93 mmscmd Y-O-Y.

At KGD-6, the Reliance Industries (RIL)-BP combine is producing 27 mmscmd (up from 20 mmscmd a year ago).

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports amount to 95 mmscmd, up from 59 mmscmd Y-o-Y.

KGD-6 may ramp up to 30 mmscmd very soon. But exposure to spot LNG imports is high and may rise.

Surges in LNG prices could lead to volume and margin risks for gas companies, particularly CGD players. The CGD demand is currently being met by higher allocation of high pressure high temperature (HPHT) gas.