Defusing the demographic time-bomb

World Bank President Ajay Banga says, "The best way to put a nail in the coffin of poverty is to give a person a job." He says a time bomb is ticking in the world.

- ARUN MAIRA

In the next 12 to 15 years, 1.2 billion people in emerging markets (the largest number in India) will be looking for a job, but only around 400 million will be available. "The gap of 800 million jobs is not a demographic dividend. If you are worried about illegal migration and military coups, just wait," he warned the US Council on Foreign Relations this month.

Global demographics have changed. Not only are many young people looking for jobs, but many more older persons must also be cared for. Life expectancy has been increasing and with it the number of years after the "retirement" age. Life expectancy in China increased from 42 in 1950 to 78 in 2024; in India, from 37 in 1950 to 70.6 in 2024. In the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development), men and women were already living eight years longer after their official retirement ages in 2020 than in 1970.

Older persons past their productive age are considered burdens on economies. Governments cannot provide sufficient pension and medical care without taxing younger people who are earning and compelling them to save for their own future needs. With insufficient jobs, many governments have run out of resources to care for older citizens.