A dark moment on CO2 control?

The situation is really bad, but it's likely to get better

- AJAY SHAH

This is a truly gloomy moment on the problem of global warming. The case for concern is made in four steps.

1. Many of us grew up on Daniel Yergin's 1990 book, The Prize, which was about the oil industry. Writing in the Foreign Affairs, Mr Yergin, Peter Orszag, and Atul Arya recently argued that the energy transition was not going well (even before the policy shifts derived from Donald Trump taking charge as American President on January 20). They reminded us the share of hydrocarbons in the global energy mix had only dropped slightly, from 85 per cent in 1990 to 80 per cent today.

2. The two biggest megatrends of the world — populism and climate change — are interacting in a peculiar fashion. We are able to now look back, and understand the chain of events, where the internet gave us social media, which harmed the thinking of the people. This created greater extremism. When people look to their peers, this is a recipe for being swayed by conspiracy theories and pseudo-science, and the process of Sanskritisation is impeded. Under the Trump administration, the United States (US) government has thrown its weight with governments like those of Russia and Saudi Arabia with opposition to decarbonisation.

3. Controlling carbon dioxide emission was always a global public good. It required a sensible global order, where foreign policy engaged in give and take, to get all countries to put their shoulder to the task. In the new environment of governments controlled by angry people (Mr Trump, Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping) doing more strategic autonomy, it has become hard to engage