FASTER DECOUPLING BETWEEN U.S., CHINA TO BENEFIT S.E.A.

Southeast Asian economies, including the Philippines, stand to benefit from the accelerating decoupling between the United States and China, as companies pursuing diversification strategies increasingly seek alternatives to Chinese supply chains.

- By LORENZ S. MARASIGAN

At the launch of the DHL Global Connectedness Report 2026, New York University Stern Research Assistant Professor Steven Altman said the report he coauthored found that the share of US imports sourced from China has collapsed to just 9 percent in 2025—down from 13 percent in 2024 and from highs reached before the first round of US-China tariff escalation in 2017.

Notably, he said, the figure now sits below the level recorded when China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001.

Since 2016, he said the share of US trade, capital, information, and people flows going to or from China has fallen by an average of 42 percent, while China's corresponding flows toward the United States are down 37 percent.

Trade between the two economies accounted for 3.6 percent of global trade at its peak in 2015, before declining to 2.7 percent in 2024 and sliding further to just 2.0 percent during the first three quarters of 2025.