TRUMP'S TRADE WAR: THAILAND FACES GRIM ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

The prospect of Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" on April 2 has sent tremors through Thailand's economy.

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As the American president prepares to announce his reciprocal tariffs targeting countries with trade surpluses against the United States, Thailand finds itself among the "thirty or so" nations specifically marked for punitive trade measures.

This development comes at a particularly vulnerable moment for Thailand. The country's economy grew just 3.2% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2004, falling significantly below market expectations. With private investment contracting and durable goods consumption showing strong declines, we have downgraded Thailand's economic outlook for 2005 to 2.3%, below the National Economic and Social Development Council's forecast of between 2.3% and 3.3%. The impending tariffs could reduce this growth further to a mere 1%.

Trump's trade policies are proving more aggressive and unpredictable than anticipated. His administration's approach to the reciprocal tariffs initially appeared ad-hoc in nature to just use tariff differentials, but also use tariff barriers and value-added tax (VAT) disparities.