Trump tariffs sow divisions in Asean

President Donald Trump's unilateral imposition of tariffs across the United States' economic chessboard poses a critical test for Asean.

- Thitinan Pongsudhirak

As the regional organisation of Southeast Asia, Asean has weathered many geopolitical and geoeconomic storms in its 58-year existence, but no adversity like the Trump tariffs. Unless Asean reorganises and regroups, the ten-member body risks further divisions and increasing irrelevance.

To be sure, Asean over the past 12 years has already been beset with knotty divisions over the US-China conflict, Myanmar's coup and civil war since February 2021, and Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Asean member states have reacted and responded to these challenges divergently. On the US-China confrontation, for example, the Philippines relies more on Washington's support to stand up to Beijing on overlapping territorial claims in the South China Sea, whereas Laos is more economically dependent and supportive of China, with others positioning between the two superpowers in pragmatic ways.

On Myanmar's internal conflict, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Singapore have called for the restoration of the democratic process through an Asean agreement known as the "Five-Point Consensus," while other Asean members have been more passive. On what's happening to Ukraine, Laos and Vietnam have abstained from major United Nations resolutions to condemn Russia. Yet these Asean differences generally lead member states to take divergent positions and approaches.

What the Trump tariffs will likely end up doing is to force Asean economies to compete aggressively with each other more than ever. Already, Asean economies are export-dependent with similar structures of production and factor endowments. For instance, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam make electronics and electrical products, machinery and machine components, and integrated circuits and computers for sale abroad. Both Thailand and Vietnam export rice, while Malaysia and Thailand sell rubber and petrochemicals in third markets.