PM's crisis and Thai political directions

What began just a month ago as a minor border dispute with Cambodia has spiralled into an existential political crisis in Thailand. In what she understood to be a private phone conversation with Cambodia's former prime minister and Senate President, Hun Sen, Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra compromised her premiership and undermined Thai national interests. While she tries to ride out the storm, her tenure appears wobbly and unworkable. What comes next will likely proceed in one of three directions revolving around the Thai parliamentary processes, each with its own scenarios and considerations.

- Thitinan Pongsudhirak

While there are myriad moving parts in Thailand's murky political environment, from the prospects of Ms Paetongtarn and the longevity of the coalition government to the likelihood of a snap election and judicial/ military interventions, it is instructive to view the bottom line through parliamentary lenses. Thai politics in the near term will move forward either under the current House of Representatives or a newly elected chamber, with a remote chance of an unelected assembly appointed after a military takeover. Here are Thailand's probable three main directions ahead, each with its own dynamics.

The current lower house, which is just half-way into its four-year term after the May 2023 general election, remains operational. In this case, Ms Paetongtarn fights tooth and nail to stay in office in the face of street protests and arising tide of public criticism and opposition. The Bhumjaithai Party's withdrawal from the coalition leaves the Pheu Thai-led government with a slim 261-234 margin over the opposition and hostage to small coalition partners, such as the United Thai Nation and Democrat parties.