Papering over strains, US, allies prep for Taiwan war

As they kicked off the largest joint military exercises in Australia’s history with a press conference in Sydney earlier this month, US commanders gave a simple explanation for why 35,000 troops from 19 nations were simulating high-tech warfare.

- Peter Apps

In the words of US Lieutenant-General Joel Vowell, deputy commander of the US Army in the Pacific, exercise TALISMAN SABRE was intended to build the ability of the US and its allies to respond to any crisis in the Pacific — and in doing so, act as a “deterrent mechanism’ to prevent a future conflict.

Already, 2025 has witnessed a series of the largest and most sophisticated military drills held in the Pacific since the end of World War II, a sign of growing nervousness over a rising China. But along with other US-led activity around the region, the drills also have a much more focused goal.

They are to persuade Beijing that if it goes ahead with what are now believed to be increasingly advanced plans for an invasion of Taiwan, it risks finding itself at war not just with the US but a powerful and well-armed de facto alliance.

Behind the scenes, however, sits clear diplomatic awkwardness, caused both by Pacific frustrations over US President Donald Trump's tariff salvoes and trade war as well as strategic uncertainty over the US and its future global role.

Unlike with its Nato allies in Europe or its main Pacific partners, such as Australia, the US has no binding treaty obligations to defend Taiwan if it is attacked.

Nor do Australia, the Philippines and other major players in the region.

This month, the Financial Times reported that US officials were exerting mounting pressure on Australia and Japan to agree to intervene militarily if China moved against Taiwan.

That raised eyebrows in both nations — as well as an unusually public refusal to make any such commitment.

That should not have been surprising.

Under terms of the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, successive US administrations have been committed to ensuring plans and military resources are in place to protect the island against whatever Chinese menace it faces.